2007: A Busy Year for Hurricanes in the U.S

The awesome destructive force of HurricaneThe above information, and much more, will be
Katrina, in 2005, has re-awakened the world toused by Federal, State and local governments to
what a powerful hurricane can do, in the wronghelp anticipate their needs for 2007, so that they
place at the wrong time. The year 2007 couldcan respond adequately to the increased risks
produce more of the same, with increasedthat are faced by all the States that border the
Hurricane activity forecasted for the AtlanticAtlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico.
Ocean producing more Hurricanes than normal,Individual citizens should also take precautions, as
and with a higher strike probability on the U.S.the hurricane season nears, to protect their lives
coastline.and property. By remaining vigilant during the
The Tropical Meteorology Project, at Coloradohurricane season (1 June to 30 November) and
State University is the entity that produces ourtaking prudent action when a Hurricane Watch or
most reliable, and most widely used hurricaneHurricane Warning is issued, citizens can do much
forecasts. Each year, for the past 24 years, Dr.to protect themselves and their loved ones from
William Gray and Doctorate Candidate Philthe type of destruction and loss that the victims
Klotzbach study worldwide weather trends, andof Hurricane Katrina suffered, and are still trying
past activity, and then apply sophisticatedto fully recover from, today.
computer modeling to attempt to forecast whatThere are many ways to keep informed of
we can expect in the upcoming year. Theirhurricane activity; the author of this article has
forecasts have historically been surprisinglycreated a website ( that is designed to be of
accurate, given the difficult nature of the subject.effective help in all aspects hurricane awareness: it
What they tell us for 2007 should serve as aprovides complete and current worldwide
warning, far in advance of the actual need.hurricane tracking, weather radar, tracking maps,
For example, during the last century, thecurrent hurricane watches and warnings,
probability of a major hurricane (category 3, 4, ormultimedia and much more, for all hurricanes and
5) striking somewhere on the U.S. coastline in anytropical storms. In addition it also provides an email
particular year has been 52%; in 2007 thatnotification service, to notify you by email when
probability climbs to 64%.any hurricane watch or hurricane warning is
Also, during the period 1950-2000, there were onissued, so you will never be caught off-guard.
average 5.9 hurricanes per year, in 2007 we canAs the hurricane season of 2007 draws near, and
expect 7 hurricanes, an ominous increase.threatens to be very intense, we can at least
During the same period of 1950-2000, there weretake heed of the warning. If past history is any
on average 9.6 "named storms" (which areindication of future performance, our government
tropical storms and/or hurricanes), in 2007 we canagencies will be hard pressed to deal with a
expect 14.large-scale disaster. So, individually we should
Finally, the Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cycloneensure that we are ready for whatever may
(NTC) activity in 2007 is forecasted to be aboutcome.
140 percent of the long-term average.