| Weather forecasting is becoming more accurate. I | | | | flow of information, around the world. |
| don't think there is much doubt about that. With | | | | Observations and data for weather forecasting |
| the introduction of ever more sophisticated | | | | come from many different sources. Around |
| technology, both computerized and satellite, any | | | | 13,000 land stations, 7,500 ships, commercial |
| weather professional can be more confident than | | | | airliners and satellites are also all pouring data into |
| ever about his ability to forecast - but only to a | | | | the computer models around the world which in |
| point. | | | | turn churn out weather predictions from a few |
| Thanks to the chaotic nature of our climate and | | | | minutes (e.g. Tornadoes) to hundreds of years |
| atmosphere a long range forecast is still not | | | | (e.g. global warming). |
| something you would bet your house on. Most | | | | So, with all this information available, with all this |
| weather forecasts are accurate to within two or | | | | hardware and software, and an incredible network |
| three days, but then the percentages drop away | | | | of observations from the oceans, the |
| sharply. | | | | atmosphere and from space is a 7 day forecast |
| As the weather is global in nature it makes sense | | | | worth the paper it is written on? Well, maybe - |
| that global cooperation is required to help the | | | | you see it all depends on where you are in the |
| forecasters. Most countries now have some form | | | | world. Some climates rarely change, such as the |
| of national weather service with a remit to | | | | Sahara desert and a forecast of this area will be |
| produce accurate forecasts for a couple of days | | | | pretty straightforward the majority of the time |
| ahead. However the measurements and forecasts | | | | with perhaps just some tweaking of the high and |
| observed in every county give an important | | | | low temperatures. |
| contribution to the worldwide network and allow | | | | Other areas of the world however are much |
| more data to be fed into the computer models. | | | | more changeable and harder to predict. The British |
| There are three national superpowers that are | | | | Isles for instance lying on the western edge of |
| particularly involved in global forecasting. In England | | | | Europe, with the jet stream taking aim from |
| there is the British Meteorological Office, in the US | | | | across the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream |
| the American National Weather Centre and for | | | | conveying warm air to our shores, is much more |
| Europe the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium | | | | difficult to measure. A slight change in the |
| Range Weather Forecasts) also located in England. | | | | direction of a depression mid-Atlantic can have a |
| The ECMWF concentrates on forecasts from 1 to | | | | marked effect on the local weather. The same is |
| 10 days, and covers 17 countries. This | | | | true of course for cyclones and hurricanes, and |
| organisation spends a large amount of time | | | | tornadoes and dust storms. And that for me is |
| collecting and analysing data from around the | | | | the great thing about the weather. It is so |
| world and is generally considered a leader in | | | | unpredictable and chaotic. Yes, the forecasts are |
| medium term forecasting. | | | | becoming ever more sophisticated and accurate |
| There is also the WMO (World Meteorological | | | | but they will never be 100% accurate, and I |
| Organisation) which is an agency operated for and | | | | wouldn't have it any other way. So is a 7 day |
| behalf of the United Nations with over 170 | | | | weather forecast worth the paper it is written |
| member countries. This organisation was | | | | on? Probably, but with so many caveats you |
| established in 1951 and is tasked with improving | | | | wouldn't put a bet on it. |
| weather observations, and allowing an optimum | | | | |