A Facility Manager's Introduction to Weather Correction For Utility Bill Tracking

ABSTRACTyou off the hook, but you still need to quantify
Utility bill tracking is at the heart of an effectivehow much you saved, don't you? Management will
energy management program. Merely comparingonly accept arm waving for so long.
utility bills can yield inaccurate indications of theYou can quantify your savings by correcting your
amount of savings from energy managementutility bill savings equation for weather.
programs due to the unaccounted influence ofHOW WEATHER CORRECTION WORKS
weather or other factors. Correcting utility bills forRather than compare last year's usage to this
weather data will give more accurateyear's usage, when we use weather correction,
representations of savings that were accrued.we compare how much energy we would have
This paper presents the how and why ofused this year to how much energy we did use
weather correction for those who want tothis year. Many in our industry do not call the
become more familiar with the concepts andresult of this comparison, Savings, but rather
methodology.Usage Avoidance or Cost Avoidance. But, since
WHAT UTILITY BILL TRACKING CAN DO FORwe are trying to keep this paper at an
YOUintroductory level, we will use the word Savings.
Jim Faes from Jefferson County School DistrictWhen we tried to compare last year's usage to
wrote to me "energy accounting is the backbonethis year's usage. We used the equation:
of our school district's energy managementSavings = last year's usage - this year's usage
program." Why would he write that?When we use weather correction, we end up
An energy accounting system is much like anwith the equation:
airplane's control panel. In order to correctlySavings = How much energy we would have
navigate your airplane, you need to understandused this year - how much energy we did use
where it is, where it was and where it is going. Ifthis year**
you fly the plane without the control panel, you**where this year's usage from the 1st equation
have a good chance of crashing the plane. It isis the same as how much energy we did use this
the same with energy management. You need toyear from the 2nd equation
know where you are, where you were, whereThe next question is, how do we figure out how
you are going, and how where you are now fitsmuch energy we would have used this year. This
with expectations of your progress.is done using weather correction as shown below.
With utility bill tracking systems, Energy managersFirst, we select a year of utility bills we want to
can:compare future usage to. This would typically be
- Enter target usage and costs and track theirthe year before you started your energy
actual performance against their targetsefficiency program, or the year before you, the
- Discover large increases in energy usage andnew facility manager, were hired, or some chosen
take corrective actionsyear. In this example, we would select the year
- Identify the buildings that are using more $of utility data before the installation of the chilled
SQFT than the others, and concentrate energywater system. We will call this year the Base
management activities on those buildings.Year.
- Determine whether your meters are on theWe graph Base Year usage versus weather (in
best ratesthe form of Cooling Degree Days or Heating
- Check to see if you are being billed correctly byDegree Days). The blue dots represent the utility
the utilitybills.
- Create bills for your tenants (if you have any)Then we find the Best Fit Line between usage
- Determine whether you have saved any energyand weather. The Best Fit Line is the line that
from your energy conservation measurescomes closest to all the utility bills. We can tell it is
- Aggregate your usage and costs and pass thisthe Best Fit Line by looking at some statistical
aggregated data to potential energy suppliersindicators (such as R2 value, Net Mean Bias Error
- Create utility budgetsand CVRMSE, which are not covered in this
More generally, if you keep aware of the state ofintroductory paper) .
your utility accounting, you will know where yourThis Best Fit Line has an equation, which we call
facility is and how it is faring towards your goals.the Fit Line Equation, or in this case the Baseline
UTILITY BILL TRACKING: THE REPORT CARDEquation. Once we have this equation, we are
FOR FACILITIES AND FACILITY MANAGERSdone with this regression process.
Energy Managers and some Facility Managers allLet's recap what we have done:
to often have to justify their existence to- We graphed a Base Year of utility data versus
management. How much did we save last year?weather data
Is that more than what we pay our energy- We found a Best Fit Line through the data. The
manager? Did your recommendations giveBest Fit Line then represents the utility bills.
reasonable paybacks? Why do we even have an- The Best Fit Line Equation, which represents the
energy manager?Best Fit Line, which in turn represents the Base
There are several methods to determine whetherYear of utility data. The Fit Line Equation
you have saved energy from your energyrepresents how your facility used energy during
conservation efforts, as described in the literature.the Base Year, and would continue to use energy
You can wave your hands in the air, and decidein the future (varying with changing weather
upon a number; calculate your savings based uponconditions) assuming there were no significant
data logger and control points; compare utility billschanges occurred in building consumption patterns,
to determine savings; and finally, employ a buildingsuch as new equipment, area or operating hours.
model. (These are referred to as Option A, B, CBase Year bills - Best Fit Line = Fit Line Equation
and D in the IPMVP, FEMP Guidelines and otherIn our example:
literature.)Baseline Equation = Fit Line Equation
Most likely, the simplest and most palatableOnce you have the Baseline Equation, you can
method for the facility manager to determinedetermine if you saved any energy.
whether you are saving energy is Option C,How? You take a bill from some billing period after
comparing utility bills. Why? Well, although somethe Base Year. You (or your software) plug in the
utility managers do present calculations given tonumber of days and the number of degree days
them by the friendly sales rep, this method isfrom the bill into your Baseline Equation.
hardly reliable, as they may produce inflatedRemember, the Baseline Equation represents how
numbers. Placing dataloggers and using existingyour building used to use energy in the Base Year.
control points seems easy enough, but convertingSo, with the new inputs of number of days and
these inputs into savings numbers can sometimesnumber of degree days, the Baseline Equation will
prove to be outside of the scope of the facilitytell you how much energy the building would have
manager's skillset. Building modeling, while it can beused this year based upon Base Year usage
useful, requires hours of time to construct thepatterns and this years conditions (weather and
model, and may represent how much the buildingnumber of days). We call this usage that is
should be using, and may not really representdetermined by the Baseline Equation, Baseline
what the building truly is using. If those objectionsUsage.
hold, that leaves utility bills as the last remainingNow, to get a fair comparison of this year versus
method to quantify your performance as anlast year, we compare:
energy manager. Plus, in the end, it is all about theSavings = How much energy we would have
utility bills, as the bills reflect how much you areused this year - How much energy we did use
paying.this yearor if we change the terminology a bit:
Since most facility managers are already trackingSavings = Baseline Energy Usage - Actual Energy
their utility bills, it is only one additional small stepUsagewhere Baseline Energy Usage is calculated
to see whether you have saved any energy andusing the Baseline Equation and current month's
costs from your energy management program.weather and number of days, and Actual Energy
Just compare prior year bills to current year's bills,Usage is the current month's bill. Both equations
and you will see if you have saved.are one and the same, Baseline = How much
Well, it isn't that easy. Let's find out why.energy we would have used this year, and Actual
WHY BILL COMPARISON DOESN'T WORK, OR,represents how much energy we did use this
WHY USE WEATHER CORRECTIONyear.
Suppose you want to see savings from the newCORRECTING FOR OTHER VARIABLES
efficient chilled water system you installed thisFacility Managers in the industrial sector may want
January. A simple comparison of prior and postto correct for production rather than (or in
bills should show the savings right? Well, notaddition to) weather data. This works if you have
exactly. Suppose last year had a relatively coola simple variable that quantifies your production.
summer, and this summer was devilishly hot.For example, an automobile manufacturing plant
Would you see the savings? Maybe not.can track number of automobiles produced. If
There are a couple of ways we can plot theyour factory makes several different things, for
usage from year to year. Suppose we justexample, disk drives, desktop computers, printers
looked at the usage vs. time, like most people do.and main frame computers, it is difficult to come
We have marked two regions. The bottomup with a single variable that could be used to
(darker) region, we call non-weather sensitiverepresent production for the entire plant.
usage. This usage can be attributed to computers,However, if your printer manufacturing unit was
lights, constant volume pumps and other loadsserved by a different meter or submeter than
that are on regardless of what the weather is.the other units, then you could use the number of
For an all year operation, this amount is steady.printers produced as a variable for the meter (or
(In this case, the non-weather sensitive usage issubmeter) that serves the printing unit.
very low, since this meter serves a mechanicalWEATHER CORRECTION IN EXCEL VS. CANNED
plant. Typically, the non-weather sensitive usageSOFTWARE
would be higher.)Weather correction can be done in Excel,
We call the top (lighter) region weather sensitivehowever it can be laborious, and oftentimes may
usage. This is usage directly related to, in thisnot be as rigorous as when done using specialized
case, air conditioning the facility. Usage in thissoftware. Excel will give regressions, fit line
region could be attributed to chillers, cycling chilledequations, and statistical indicators which show
water pumps, cooling towers, condenser waterhow well your usage is represented by the fit line.
pumps, condenser fans, and possibly fans andHowever, it is difficult to find the best balance
pumps that cycle or are on a variable frequencypoint in Excel, as you can in specialized software.
drive.Excel may force you have to choose just one
If last summer was cool, and this summer wasbalance point, and possibly then you would iterate
hot, then the non-weather sensitive usage wouldwith different balance points, whereas canned
likely not change from year to year, but thesoftware will allow you to easily find the best fit
weather sensitive usage would change. Noticeline using different balance points. In addition, if
how in the second year, the weather sensitiveyou enter your weather data in high low
portion is much greater due to the hot summer'stemperatures or average temperatures, it can be
increased cooling load.difficult to apply the correct weather data to the
Now suppose that the new chilled water systemcorrect billing periods. Try it, and you will see.
reduced weather sensitive consumption by 20%.AVAILABLE WEATHER CORRECTION DESKTOP
With the weather variation, an annual comparisonSOFTWARE
of the usage may not show any energy savingsAll of the major desktop utility bill tracking
at all.. (We removed 20% of the weathersoftware packages will now correct for weather
sensitive usage from 2002 data, which is whatdata. Nearly all of them will correct for your own
we might see with a chilled water systemvariables as well. The major desktop programs
retrofit.)are Energy CAP, Metrix, Stark Essentials, and
Imagine showing management these results afterUtility Manager Pro. You can find information on all
you invested a half million dollars. It is hard toof them online.
inspire confidence in management with graphs likeCONCLUSION
that. So much for utility bill comparison.Weather changes from year to year. If wish to
To explain these results, you might provide themuse utility bills to show energy savings from
with a graph of CDDs, and then they could seeenergy management programs with any degree
that, the post-retrofit year (2002) was indeedof accuracy, it is important to correct your utility
much hotter, and required more cooling andbills for fluctuations in weather.
therefore led to increased usage. This might let