| Sports Betting is a way that professional "smart | | | | defense. Who know's what's going to happen? |
| money" gamblers make money. One of the most | | | | Well, we don't know exactly what's going to |
| overlooked ways to make money from sports | | | | happen in the game, but what we do know about |
| betting is by understanding the teams, and how | | | | is the weather. It's pouring in Seattle today, and |
| they will play in different weather conditions. | | | | they're expecting 2 inches of rain. The wind is at |
| Let's look at an example of my analysis of a | | | | 18 mph, gusting to 23 mph. The field is covered, |
| game where the teams were expected to play in | | | | but it's going to be VERY sloppy tonight and very |
| a driving rainstorm: | | | | windy. The rain is expected to get heavier by |
| Oakland at Seattle -7 This game presents a bit of | | | | tonight's 5:30 pm PST start (8:30 EST). |
| a mystery since Seattle is playing without their #1 | | | | Now there are two schools of thought on this. |
| QB and without their #1 running back. This means | | | | The first is that the sloppy conditions will lead to |
| that all the previous stats, etc., are pretty much | | | | more turnovers, and make it easier to pass |
| meaningless in terms of handicapping this game. | | | | because the receivers know where they're going, |
| Generally speaking, I like to stay away from | | | | but the defenders have to react. Plus, the sloppy |
| games like this because they are typically what I | | | | conditions are going to lead to possibly more |
| call "coin flip" games -that is there isn't enough | | | | turnovers, etc. But this cuts both ways. The |
| data to determine if the odds are in your favor | | | | turnovers could easily come when a team is |
| or not. | | | | knocking on the door about to score as they |
| However... this game may be an exception. Let | | | | could when they're backed up near their own goal |
| me explain why. | | | | line. The other school of thought is that the |
| First and foremost, Seattle's defense took them | | | | weather is going to make it next to impossible to |
| to the Super Bowl last year, but they've stunk | | | | move the ball and score. This is why the o/u line |
| out the joint this year. In Seattle's last 5 games, | | | | is sitting at 36. |
| they've given up 35, 31, 28, 37, and 42 points. | | | | The o/u line is also sitting at 36 because Seattle |
| This may be the most stunning surprise of this | | | | QB Senaca Wallace has one of the most pathetic |
| season. And who did they give up this many | | | | QB ratings possible, a measly 59.0. I say "one of |
| points to? High-powered teams like Indianapolis? | | | | the most pathetic" QB ratings because Oakland's |
| Nope. They gave up these points to KC, | | | | QB Andrew Walter has an ever worse rating at |
| Minnesota, St. Louis, Chicago, and the Giants. Sure, | | | | 49.0. This may be lowest combined QB ratings of |
| these teams are decent, but keep in mind | | | | any game in the NFL. |
| Minnesota could barely score against SF, and the | | | | So what's this all mean? First, it means that |
| other teams have been inconsistent on offesne all | | | | Seattle has the edge because of Seneca Wallace. |
| season -except when they played Seattle. In their | | | | Wallace, unlike Walter, is like having an extra back |
| two early wins the defense looked good, but | | | | in the backfield. Oakland's defensive line is going to |
| keep in mind those games were against Arizona | | | | have problems with their footing, and when they |
| and Detroit. | | | | do break into the backfield, Wallace is going to be |
| Oakland on the other hand has played horrible all | | | | quick to sprint forward out of the pocket and the |
| season on offense. They managed just 98 total | | | | Raider defenders are going to be helpless to react |
| yards against Pittsburgh, a team that's been | | | | on the wet turf. Wallace stinks throwing the ball |
| abused defensively all season. Oakland is averaging | | | | anyway so the wind isn't going to affect him as |
| only 123 yards per game passing, which is really | | | | much as it's going to affect Walter, a more classic |
| astonishing considering they've been in many | | | | drop-back QB. |
| games where they needed to play catch-up and | | | | So the bottom line is this. I do NOT recommend |
| still couldn't manage to rack up many yards, even | | | | even playing this game because there are too |
| against other team's prevent defense. It's even | | | | many unknowns. However, if you really feel like |
| more astonishing considering that they have | | | | you must take a side on this game I look for |
| Randy Moss to throw to. Moss should at least get | | | | Oakland to have trouble scoring, probably scoring |
| some double-coverage which you'd think would | | | | in the single digits. I look for Seattle to be able to |
| free up somebody, somewhere in the secondary. | | | | move the ball on the ground, especially with |
| It used to be that classic games pitted the | | | | Wallace running the ball out of the pocket. With all |
| immovable force vs. the unstoppable object. This | | | | this in mind, I look for Seattle to win 17-6. |
| game is the exact opposite. It's the inept offense | | | | What really happened in this game? Seneca |
| vs. the inept defense. Oakland is ranked dead last | | | | Wallace, Seattle's QB, had 49 yards rushing, |
| in the NFL in offense. Seattle is ranked 29th in | | | | including a key run of 37 yards. Seattle won 16-0. |