| Most people have now become familiar with the | | | | found at |
| concept of arbitrages, and the opportunities which | | | | 3. Use multiple exchanges |
| betting exchanges create in order to secure an | | | | A lot of people fail to check the price |
| arbitrage. | | | | discrepancies between the different exchanges. |
| As a very brief explanation to those who may be | | | | For example the odds for SIR MONTY could be: |
| unfamiliar to the term, an arbitrage is the practice | | | | BETFAIRback lay |
| of taking advantage of a state of imbalance | | | | 3.2 3.4 |
| between two or more markets. A combination of | | | | BETDAQback lay |
| matching deals are struck that capitalize upon the | | | | 2.8 3.0 |
| imbalance, the profit being the difference between | | | | As you can see, if you lay the horse on Betdaq |
| the market prices. | | | | at 3.0, and then back the SAME horse on Betfair |
| In the case of the betting exchange, the two | | | | at 3.2, you have again created an arbitrage! You |
| markets would represent the back side of the | | | | should note that the odds discrepancies are |
| bet and the lay side. In order to create a risk-free | | | | usually VERY small, but they do exist. You should |
| arbitrage, a punter would lay a horse at a price, | | | | also never limit to looking for arbitrages in just the |
| and then back the SAME horse when it's odds | | | | horse racing market. They often exist in all sorts |
| have increased. The same applies to backing a | | | | of other markets. |
| horse, and then LAYING the same horse if it's | | | | 4. Monitor Shifts in prices |
| odds decrease. | | | | Almost all of the time, the majority of money |
| A simple example is offered: | | | | traded on exchanges is on the first 3 favorites of |
| I have £1000 in my account | | | | the race. (The 3 horses with the lowest odds) A |
| I look at the horse SIR MONTY in the 4:10pm at | | | | good way to monitor shifts is to pick a time |
| Salisbury. | | | | around 5 minutes before the race (when the |
| At 4:05pm I lay the horse for £100 at | | | | majority of money is being traded), and then |
| odds of 3.0 | | | | write down the odds of the first three favorites. |
| (my account increases temporarily by £100 | | | | Once you have them written down, wait for 60 |
| - now showing £1,100) the horses odds | | | | seconds, and write down the odds of the three |
| begin to increase | | | | favorites again. Now back the horse/s whose |
| At 4:09pm I back the horse for £75 at | | | | odds have decreased, and lay the horse/s whose |
| odds of 4.0 | | | | odds have decreased. |
| (£75 now leaves my account - now | | | | Most of the time the odds will continue to shift in |
| showing £1,025) | | | | the same direction, so wait for another 60 |
| If the horse wins: | | | | seconds, and now LAY the same horse/s you |
| I will lose £300 from my account from the | | | | just backed, and BACK the same horse/s you |
| lay bet (now showing £825) | | | | just layed. This takes practice, but can often lead |
| I will also win £300 from my back bet | | | | to small (but risk-free) arbitrage opportunities. |
| (now showing £1,025) | | | | 5. Look out for big bets! |
| Profit made £25 | | | | The figure just below the odds in the betfair |
| If the horse loses: | | | | screen, show the amount of money available to |
| I have lost my £75 stake, but kept the | | | | trade at those odds. This figure usually increases |
| £100 lay | | | | steadily, the closer you get to the start of the |
| Profit made £25 | | | | race, but if you suddenly notice a huge jump, this |
| This in effect is an arbitrage. (This is merely an | | | | could give an indication of the market, and it's |
| example, and you should always take into account | | | | often a good idea to follow this. |
| the exchanges commission which will be deducted | | | | For example, the favorite SIR MONTY has odds |
| from winning bets - there is a very good, and | | | | trading around at 2.6 with the amount of money |
| completely free arbitrage calculator available here. | | | | available at 300. You watch the value for a little |
| But how can we tell which direction the odds are | | | | while at see the following. |
| going to shift in order to secure the arbitrage? | | | | 300 changes to 290 changes to 220 changes to |
| There are various methods for doing this: | | | | 160 changes to 240 changes to 330 changes to |
| 1. Who do the top tipsters predict will win the | | | | 380 changes to 310 changes to 5600 changes to |
| race? | | | | 5545 changes to 5520 |
| It is incredible just how huge the level of influence | | | | You will notice that there has been a sudden |
| these tipsters have on the uk race market. Many | | | | increase in this figure (from 310 to 5600). This |
| top tipster have become household names, with | | | | means someone on the exchange is suddenly |
| the Sun's Templegate and the News of the | | | | prepared to lay this horse for a lot of money! It |
| Worlds Pegasus being two of the more common | | | | of course could be purely coincidental, but this |
| ones. If Templegates 'NAP' (best bet of the day) | | | | shift often creates an overall market shift. In this |
| is priced above 5/1 more than 60 minutes before | | | | situation, you would do the same.. You would lay |
| the race is due to begin, and there isn't any | | | | the horse as well! After all, if someone is prepared |
| odds-on favorite in the same race to oppose it, | | | | to lay this horse for a huge amount, it doesn't |
| the NAP's odds will regularly tend to decrease. In | | | | have much confidence in it. People will often notice |
| this situation You would back early, and then lay | | | | this also, in which case the odds of the horse will |
| the horse closer to the start of the race as it's | | | | drift (increase) and after this you will then have |
| odds decrease. This will help you secure the arb. | | | | the opportunity to back the same horse at |
| A good source of NAPS can be found at which | | | | greater odds, creating an arbitrage. |
| provides a free daily race-card of uk naps. | | | | 6. Use software to look for arbitrages on your |
| 2. Watch for changes in the weather! | | | | behalf |
| This may seem obvious to some, but the | | | | This topic deserves an entire article to itself! You |
| changes in the weather can adversely affect the | | | | can use exchange software to look for arbitrage |
| outcome of a race. For example, you get up at | | | | opportunites for you, by specifying triggers, which |
| 6am and hear on the news that there is a high | | | | will place bets in the event of an arbitrage |
| probability of rain later that day. You notice on the | | | | opportunity appearing. For example, tell the |
| exchange that the odds-on favorite in the 3:30 at | | | | software to monitor the shift in odds. If it sees |
| Ascot is trading at 1.6. After some checking, you | | | | that the odds have increased over the last 2 |
| see that this favorite has only ever won on firm | | | | minutes. then place a lay bet, wait for 60 seconds |
| ground. If it does happen to rain, the ground will | | | | then place a win bet on the same horse. This is |
| soften, and the likelihood of this horse winning | | | | more complicated, but well worth the time and |
| decreases. So in this case you lay the horse early, | | | | effort. The best piece of software on the market |
| and closer to the start of the race the odds | | | | for doing this is MarketFeeder Pro. |
| should drift out, which is when you then back the | | | | Hopefully some of these tips will help you increase |
| horse. Again, creating an arb. | | | | the chances of obtaining your zero-risk arbitrage! |
| A good source for UK weather updates can be | | | | |