| After 14 years of actively handicapping NFL | | | | into question how well it may perform in 2008 |
| games versus the Vegas line, I have had the | | | | and beyond. |
| chance to explore literally hundreds of different | | | | The first is the fact that less than half the teams |
| trends based on a vast array of stats and | | | | in the league have fallen into this situation (46.9% |
| situational factors, covering almost every facet of | | | | to be exact) since 2001--obviously, because many |
| the game. | | | | teams simply don't play in these colder outdoor |
| The key word above is 'almost' and one area I | | | | conditions that often. In addition, we also happen |
| have not focused on up until this point concerns | | | | to be dealing with a fairly narrow range as far as |
| game conditions, a category which includes such | | | | the game-time temperature goes that may or |
| variables as: game-time temperature, humidity and | | | | may not be truly significant over the long-run. |
| wind speed along with playing surface type as well | | | | While I am cautionary about this trends future |
| as the general weather conditions (aside from | | | | potential, it is certainly significant enough to |
| temperature and humidity) present at the start of | | | | warrant closer study in the coming season and I |
| the game (i.e., Partly Sunny, Cloudy, Snow, Light | | | | am even more confident of this fact after 2 |
| Rain, etc). | | | | Secondary conditions are added into the mix. |
| The biggest reason I have ignored this data over | | | | The first of these is to remove any games |
| the past decade-and-a-half is probably more an | | | | before Week 13 and in the Playoffs. This situation |
| issue of timing than anything else: Making wagers | | | | has had mixed results prior to Week 13 and in the |
| based on weather conditions is a difficult task 6 | | | | Post Season, where a different set of rules apply |
| days before a game is actually due to be | | | | as far as how teams typically behave versus the |
| played--which is roughly when my full analysis is | | | | spread. |
| normally released to my customers and anyone | | | | By including only games between Week 13 and |
| else that may be interested in some of the | | | | 17, we are essentially only looking at contests |
| sample trends I provide. | | | | within the month of December, where a temp |
| Ultimately, the determination of whether or not a | | | | range of 20 to 34 degrees is most prevalent |
| weather-based trend is or isn't in play has to be | | | | anyway. Once this condition is added, the record |
| made in the 30-60 minutes before game-time, | | | | improves greatly to 34-12 (73.9%) ATS. |
| which obviously doesn't fit into my existing | | | | The 2nd and final secondary condition for this |
| schedule all that well. | | | | situation is weather-related and it specifies that |
| Despite this, I thought it still might be worthwhile | | | | the game-time humidity is at least 50%. |
| to look at some of these factors over the | | | | Anyone familiar with the term 'humidex' is aware |
| summer of '08 and using game book data from | | | | of the uncomfortable effect that higher humidity |
| the past 7 seasons, I have now added the | | | | levels can have when combined with high |
| following 6 columns to my database to allow for | | | | temperatures. |
| further study: | | | | What is not as well known is that fact that higher |
| Temperature (TEMP) | | | | humidity levels can also increase the level of |
| Humidity (HUMD) | | | | discomfort in cold conditions due to the effect of |
| Wind Speed (WSPD) | | | | increased moisture levels in the air that can |
| Wind Direction (WDIR) | | | | permeate into clothing, serving to make the air |
| General Conditions (COND) | | | | feel colder than it actually is. |
| Playing Surface (SURF) | | | | Once again, in this case, the favourite seems to |
| The first 5 of these are all based on the weather | | | | benefit and after eliminating all games with a |
| measurements taken at game-time and my data | | | | below-average humidity level, this situation |
| is not, unfortunately, advanced enough to account | | | | improves to 34-8 ATS (81.0%) with a profit of |
| for whether the sun came out five minutes into a | | | | $2,520.00 over the past 7 years. |
| game that started out under a heavy-rainfall, or | | | | For those interested in using this situation in 2008: |
| where the wind increased by 10 mph in the | | | | Here is a complete summary of all it's details. |
| second half, etc, etc. | | | | (Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin |
| Also, while I tried my best to standardize and | | | | Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is |
| simplify the general 'conditions' listed in each game | | | | stronger than average versus the line, |
| book (i.e., Chance of Rain, Partly Sunny, etc.), one | | | | negative--weaker than average. TDIS% is the |
| on-site documenters interpretation of 'Light Snow' | | | | percentage of teams in the league that have |
| could look more like a 'Snow Storm' to someone | | | | been involved in this situation at one time or |
| else, depending on whether they happen to be | | | | another. WT% is the percentage of teams that |
| from Florida, or Fargo. | | | | are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread |
| Add the end of the day, this underlying | | | | for teams in this situation. For more details, please |
| subjectivity should be taken into account when | | | | consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets |
| attempting to use this information as a | | | | Guide.) |
| 'hard-and-fast' tool for handicapping purposes. | | | | System #112 Summary |
| The various limitations of this data not | | | | Primary Conditions (Building Blocks) |
| with-standing, I have managed to locate a few | | | | 1) Favourite of > 3 PTS. |
| interesting trends that have been present in the | | | | 2) Game Time Temperature of 20-34 degrees |
| past 7 years and I will be showcasing some of | | | | Fahrenheit. |
| these over the next few months in the form of | | | | Secondary Conditions (Tighteners) |
| 'Simple Systems' articles, exactly like this one. | | | | 1) Week 13 to 17. |
| One of the first things that jumped out at me | | | | 2) Game Time Humidity >= 50%. |
| after crunching the numbers for a few days is | | | | System Stats |
| that: Favourites of at least 3 points are an | | | | ASMR: 1.6 |
| excellent wager at a specific temperature range. | | | | Home%: 76.2 |
| What is this temperature range you ask? It | | | | Dog%: 0.0 |
| happens to be between 20 degrees Fahrenheit | | | | TDIS%: 43.8 |
| and 34 degrees Fahrenheit, the latter of which is | | | | WT%: 85.7 |
| just a hair above the freezing point of 32 | | | | SPR: -6.8 |
| degrees. | | | | Top Teams: PIT(8); GB(7); NE(7); DEN(4) |
| Favourites of at least 3 points that are playing | | | | System Record |
| within this temp range are an excellent 44-26 | | | | Overall (Since '01): 34-8 ATS |
| (62.9%) ATS since 2001, producing a profit of | | | | 2007 Season: 7-0 ATS |
| $1,540.00 at 10/11 odds ($110 wagered to win | | | | 2006 Season: 2-1 ATS |
| back $100 on each game). This situation has | | | | 2005 Season: 9-1 ATS |
| actually been equally powerful for both home favs | | | | 2004 Season: 6-2 ATS |
| and road ones. It is 37-23 ATS at home and a | | | | Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets |
| comparable 7-3 ATS on the road. | | | | 2007 WK17--GB 24 DET 13 (GB -4) W |
| Before I go any further, there are some potential | | | | 2007 WK15--TEN 26 KC 17 (TEN -3. |
| 'red-flags' that this situation raises which does put | | | | |