True Inconvenience

Current talk around town:				conclusions on thermometer readings over the
Liberal Man on the street: "Have you heard the				past century, along with "ancient climate records,"
latest news? In 10 years we are all going to die				including tree-ring studies and ice-core samples
unless we do something! You have got to go see				that revealed hot and cold spells and airborne
Gore's movie, he proves for sure that the earth				particulates over a 700-year period. In addition,
is headed for certain disaster, and we are to				they created 1,000 computer-based weather
blame."				simulations for the past 1,000 years.
Conservative Skeptic: "Wait a minute, you went				"Ancient and modern evidence suggest limits to
and paid five dollars to see a movie, and now you				future global warming," the study concluded. It
are convinced we are all doomed?"				was published in the journal Nature. The topic of
Liberal Man on the street: "You must be one of				global warming, meanwhile, will be framed
those uninformed conservatives that are coming				dramatically in "An Inconvenient Truth," a
from a political perspective, this is a serious moral				94-minute documentary featuring former Vice
issue and you are just far too closed minded to				President Al Gore, who has deemed rising
understand."				temperatures "a planetary emergency." The
Conservative Skeptic: "Isn't Al Gore a possible				Hollywood production will be released to theaters
candidate in the next presidential election?"				in May and is billed by producer Davis Guggenheim
Liberal Man on the street: "Believe what you want				as "the most terrifying film you will ever see." (
to believe, obviously you have already made up				The Washintion Times, April 21, 2006)
your mind, this conversation is over."				Furthermore, the official thermometers at the U.S.
That's just the approach Gore takes. "The debate				National Climate Data Center show a "slight global
is over." Anyone who questions what he presents				cooling trend over the last seven years '98-'06." (
in his movie is part of a small group of right wing				If It Is Warmer, What is Causing it?
nuts who have no credibility, and are not worth				Ice core samples show that there is nothing
talking to. That's really convenient! Make a claim				unusual about the Earth getting warmer at this
that you hold the "truth," just don't question it. I				point in time... Climate change, even drastic climate
personally do not remember this approach being a				change is nothing new on planet Earth. There are
part of the scientific method.				natural causes to consider as possible reasons for
In this paper I will first address Gore's				current climate change.
methodology of using observable changing effects				Recent studies of the effect on sun cycles and
in the environment as conclusive proof that man				climate change can not be cast aside. The ice
is the cause of these effects. I have had far too				caps on Mars have been melting in unison with the
many conversations with people who continually				Earth's. Scientists know that the cause for this is
refer to the ice caps melting as proof that man is				the fact that the Sun goes through hot and cold
the bad guy. Second, I want to address the issue				cycles, and for the past 11 years the sun has
of whether the debate is over, as Gore and his				been getting warmer. There are highly credible
followers quickly retreat to when questioned. I				scientists who feel that the sun cycles may be
would like to show that there is not anything like				part of our current warming trend.
"consensus" as to whether the effects sited as				Richard Willson, a Columbia University researcher
evidence are even caused by global warming, let				also affiliated with NASA's Goddard Institute for
alone consensus on man being the cause. Third, I				Space Studies, is quoted as follows:
will give a small history on science predicting				In what could be the simplest explanation for one
climate change.				component of global warming, a new study
Basic Premises of Goreology				shows the Sun's radiation has increased by .05
After reading Gore's previous work, Earth in the				percent per decade since the late 1970s. "Solar
Balance, watching three current Gore interviews,				activity has apparently been going upward for a
reading six movie reviews, and one thorough				century or more," Willson told today. Further
examination of Gore's website, two ideas clearly				satellite observations may eventually show the
appear. First, that the global warming debate is				trend to be short-term. But if the change has
over, and any dissenters are nut balls. Second				indeed persisted at the present rate through the
that there is overwhelming consensus in the				20th Century, "it would have provided a significant
scientific community with regards to man being				component of the global warming the
the cause of global warming. As proof, Gore				Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
presents a variety of possible effects of global				reports to have occurred over the past 100
warming as conclusive evidence of man as the				years," he said. (Space and Science, March 20,
cause of global warming.				2003)
The following statements can be found on the Al				Dr. Mukul Sharma, Assistant Professor of Earth
Gore Inconvenient Truth website, which clearly				Science at Dartmouth College, is quoted as
outlines Gore's position:				follows:
The website lists four examples in support of this				The National Center for Atmospheric Research in
alarming news: Notice that none of these				Boulder has recently stated:
examples of "undeniable" evidence linking man to				"Solar scientists think they're finally getting a
climate change in any way. In fact, these				handle on predicting the Sun's cycles. If everything
examples may not even be effects of global				goes as they predict, the next solar cycle will be
warming, as I will demonstrate later.				30-50% stronger, and be up to a year late.
1. The number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes				Astronomers have been tracking the two major
has almost doubled in the last 30 years.				flows of plasma that govern the Sun's cycles. One
2. Malaria has spread to higher altitudes in places				acts like a conveyor belt, pulling plasma from the
like the Colombian Andes.				poles to the equator, and the other gets
3. The flow of ice from glaciers in Greenland has				stretched since the Sun rotates faster at the
more than doubled over the past decade.				equator than at the poles. This causes the Sun's
4. At least 279 species of plants and animals are				magnetic field to concentrate, creating the solar
already responding to global warming, moving				maximum." (Universe Today, March 6, 2006)
closer to the poles.				We must conclude that sun cycles are connected
Effects Used as Causes				to the climate on Earth. To what degree it is
The problem with the methodology used by Gore				unclear, and the science is rather new, but we
to acquire his "undeniable evidence" is, as I stated				cannot easily dismiss the possibility that the sun
previously, that these are all possible effects of				could be a grater influence than man concerning
global warming, and not overwhelming evidence				climate change.
that man has caused global warming. This				There is a host of other facts that show that
intellectual swindle is used all the time, not just by				many of the effects sited by Gore may not be
Gore, but by the environmental movement in				caused by global warming. According to the
general. I have watched numerous shows and				current National Hurricane Center website:
read countless articles that site changing effects in				They site the fact that hurricane patterns are
the environment as evidence of man causing				normal, and that there have been other active
global warming. This is a slight of hand that people				phases including the one between 1945-1970.
need to be conscious of. It is one thing to say,				Gore would have us believe otherwise.
"the Earth's climate is changing," and quite another				As well, Mr. Richard Lindzen, Professor of
that "man has caused the change." I would agree				Atmospheric Science at MIT does not share in
that it has been proven that the Earth's climate				the certainty of Goreology. Writing in the Wall
changes, and to state otherwise would be				Street Journal's Op Ed, July 2, 2006, he states:
ludicrous. But this is not Gore's premise. Gore is				The other elements of the global-warming scare
putting forth the proposition that because the				scenario are predicated on similar oversights.
Earth's climate is changing, man must be the				Malaria, claimed as a byproduct of warming, was
cause. It is quite disingenuous of Mr. Gore: to use,				once common in Michigan and Siberia and remains
at best, possible effects of global warming as				common in Siberia -- mosquitoes don't require
conclusive evidence of man's causation of climate				tropical warmth. [Malaria has been on the rise in
change. It is simply intellectually dishonest.				general, ever since the banning of DDT, my note.]
While Gore's use of computer simulations can rise				Hurricanes, too, vary on multidecadal time scales;
quite a bit of emotion, it can hardly contribute to				sea-surface temperature is likely to be an
proving man as the cause. The most fundamental				important factor. This temperature, itself, varies
starting point of computer generated doomsday				on multidecadal time scales. However, questions
fortunetelling is "IF," followed by "possible." "IF"				concerning the origin of the relevant sea-surface
such and such continues, than maybe such and				temperatures and the nature of trends in
such will possibly occur. This is a big "IF" followed				hurricane intensity are being hotly argued within
by a little "p," as in little possibility that a rational				the profession [my emphasis]. Even among those
mind can accept this as conclusive, undeniable				arguing, there is general agreement that we can't
evidence that man is the cause of the current				attribute any particular hurricane to global warming
climate change. I perceive far more politics than I				[my emphasis]. To be sure, there is one
do science in Gore's statements.				exception: Greg Holland of the National Center for
Not Quite a "Consensus"				Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO., who
Gore has made the bold claim that the debate				argues that it must be global warming because he
about man causing global warming is over. He has				can't think of anything else. While arguments like
painted the picture that the only people that still				these, based on lassitude, are becoming rather
question this are a discredited minority.				common in climate assessments, such claims,
The following are findings and statements from				given the primitive state of weather and climate
various individual scientist and scientific institutions				science, are hardly compelling.
that show clearly that Mr. Gore is simply incorrect.				In his film, Gore points to Mt. Kilimanjaro as an
A challenger to Gore's "consensus" theory is				example of global warning's impact on Alpine
Professor Bob Carter of the Marine Geophysical				glaciers. Robert Balling, a climatologist at Arizona
Laboratory at James Cook University, Australia.				State University writes, however, that the
He recently stated:				shrinking glaciers atop Africa's famed volcano
Gore's circumstantial arguments are so weak that				have been disappearing for more than a century.
they are pathetic. It is simply incredible that his				Two studies published in 2004 suggest the retreat
film is commanding public attention.				was triggered by declining rainfall since the end of
(Newsmax.com)				the 1800.
Famed climatologist and internationally renowned				Arizona Moon Landing
hurricane expert Dr. William Gray, of the				In Gore's interview with Charlie Rose, Rose asks,
Atmospheric-Science Department at Colorado				"do you know any credible scientist who says
State University, went even further, calling the				'wait a minute - this hasn't been proven,' is there
scientific "consensus" on global warming "one of				still a debate?" Al Gore answers, "The debate is
the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the				over. The people who dispute the international
American people." (Newsmax.com)				consensus on global warming are in the same
Is It Warmer Now? Warmer Than When?				category now with the people who think the
The first thing we need to consider is that when				moon landing was staged on a movie lot in
we compare the Earth's climate over the past				Arizona." (PBS, Charlie Rose, June 19, 2006)
600 years, the 20th Century was warmer by				I guess we should put the National Hurricane
about one degree. However, if we look back a				Center; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
little further in time, the Earth's climate was				Administration; Doctor Lindzen, Professor of
actually warmer 1,000 years ago, at the time of				Atmospheric Science at MIT; Professor Bob
Viking exploration, than it has been during our				Carter of the Marine Geophysical Lapidary at
lifetimes. And back then, human beings were not				James Cook University, Australia; Dr. William Gray
causing global warming by burning huge amounts				of the Atmospheric-Science Department at
of natural gas or oil. This "Medieval Warm Period"				Colorado State University; The National Academy
from about 800 to 1300 A.D. was entirely natural.				of Science; Sen. James Inhofe, Chairman of the
It was followed by a "little ice age," which was				Environment and Public Works Committee;
followed by the warming period we currently live				National Science Foundation; Robert Balling,
in. So there have been both warmer and colder				Climatologist at Arizona State University; the
times in the past.				National Climate Data Center; and Dr. Fred Singer,
The National Academy of Science recently issued				Director of the National Weather Satellite Center...
a report addressing the "hockey stick" study				in with Al's "moon group."
produced by Dr. David Mann and used in Gore's				Past Climate-Change Beliefs
movie, which claims to prove that the Earth's				Let's keep in mind that this is not the first time
temperature is skyrocketing. Sen. James Inhofe,				we have been warned about imminent
R-Okla., chairman of the Committee on				catastrophic climate changes. Here are a few
Environment and Public Works, said in a statement				examples:
Thursday,				The world's climatologists are agreed that we
Today's NAS report reaffirms what I have been				must prepare for the next ice age. (Science
saying all along, that Mann's "hockey stick" is				Magazine, December 10, 1976)
broken. Today's report refutes Mann's prior				There are ominous signs that the Earth's weather
assertions that there was no Medieval Warm				patterns have begun to change dramatically and
Period or Little Ice Age. (Newsmax.com)				that these changes may portend a drastic decline
The NAS report also stated that there are				in food production- with serious political implications
substantial uncertaintiesregarding Mann's claims				for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in
that the last few decades of the 20th century				food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only
were the warmest in last 1,000 years.				10 years from now. The regions destined to feel
(Newsmax.com)				its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of
In a recent interview by News Max, Dr. Fred				Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a
Singer, former director of the National Weather				number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas -
Satellite Center and author of Hot Talk, Cold				parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and
Science: Global Warning's Unfinished Debate, points				Indonesia - where the growing season is
out that:				dependent upon the rains brought by the
The atmosphere changes. Sure, there is global				monsoon. (April 28, 1975 Newsweek article on
warming; however, there is also global cooling. In				global cooling)
the last century we had:				The Institute for Space Studies, Goddard Space
· a warming trend before 1940				Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space
· a cooling trend between 1940 and 1975				Administration, stated:
· a warming trend between 1975 and				Effects on the global temperature of large
1980				increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in
· And essentially NO trend for the last 20				the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It
years.				is found that, although the addition of carbon
Real scientists tell us the sun has an 11-year cycle				dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the
and you clearly see this in some of the				surface temperature, the rate of temperature
temperature records.				increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide
The article continues:				in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net
Proponents of Al's fiction often cite the list of				effect of increase in density is to reduce the
"2,500 scientists" who subscribe to the Gore				surface temperature of Earth. Because of the
concept of global warming. Singer says: "That is				exponential dependence of the backscattering, the
not really true. You hear about 2,500 scientists				rate of temperature decrease is augmented with
who worked on this report for the United Nations.				increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a
First of all, the number is less than 2,000 and				factor of 4 in global aerosol background
secondly, of these, perhaps 100 are qualified to				concentration may be sufficient to reduce the
say something about the climate ... and they have				surface temperature by as much as 3.5 ° K.
never been polled."				If sustained over a period of several years, such
On the other side of the coin (which you never				a temperature decrease over the whole globe is
hear about), there are some 17,000 for-real				believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.
scientists who say global warming is a hoax. And				(Science Magazine, July 9, 1971)
17,000 "actually signed a petition against the				I grew up during the 1970s and can remember
Kyoto protocol."				vividly the fearful atmosphere that was created
...there is a debate going on ... and the public is				by scientists and the media concerning the
entitled to know that there is a debate and that				disastrous ice age that was about to engulf
the debate is not finished.				humanity. Acid rain was going to eat my eyes
...Referenc[ing] the U.N. report. The summary				out. Seriously, I can remember many of my
doesn't say 'Jack' about weather satellites				classmates and myself being afraid to go out in
collecting data about the atmosphere. One would				the rain, because of the acid that would burn our
think that weather satellites are the most				skin. During the winter of 1976-77 the Mississippi
important data-gathering instrument we have. It is				River froze shut; Buffalo, N.Y., was buried beneath
the only thing that collects data on a worldwide				a record blizzard; water pipes were bursting
basis. The fact that satellites are collecting data is				throughout Chicago, as the soil froze to a depth
not even mentioned.				of more than five feet; and scientists and the
You know why? Because the satellite data shows				media warned to prepare for the worst.
that the atmosphere is NOT warming. THAT is				Al Gore is not the first to propagate doomsday
why it is not even mentioned. And yes, that is a				hysteria. These scenarios and the belief that man
for-real empirical "inconvenient truth."				is the cause of weather conditions are as old as
(Newsmax.com, June 5, 2006)				humanity. Magic men of the past, as well as
Recent findings by a Duke University study,				today, believe that we have angered the gods
conducted by Dr. Gabriele Hegerl, and endorsed				through our actions. This idea is often used for
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric				political purposes. In today's times, we have Gaia
Adminastration, the Department of Energy, and				the Earth Goddess, who is going to unleash her
the National Science Foundation, fly in the face of				wrath through global warming because of our
what Gore is attempting to convince people of.				capitalism. Only the high priests of science and Al
The Duke research found:				Gore hold the keys to our salvation.
...substantial ups and downs in the Earth's				Toward the end of the Middle Ages we had a
temperature before modern times, countering				little ice age that most people believed to be
other studies that confine noticeable temperature				caused by man's sin. During this same period
increases to the industrialized era. Marked climate				plague hit Europe. People did not understand the
change in other centuries resulted from "external				source, and panic spread faster than the disease.
forcing," said the Duke findings, citing volcanic				Believing that the end of the world was at hand,
eruptions and other influences.				wandering mobs began to focus their wrath upon
"Our reconstruction supports a lot of variability in				clergy and Jews, whom they blamed for inciting
the past," said research director Gabriele Hegerl of				God's wrath. In Germany rumors arose that Jews
Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment and				had caused the plague by poisoning the water...
Earth Sciences.				Jews were arrested. Their fortunes were seized
Although her study found that the Earth is,				by the lords under whose jurisdictions they lived,
indeed, warming, Ms. Hegerl discounts dire				and Jews were put to death by burning.
predictions of skyrocketing temperatures. The				Today it is capitalist Americans, mostly
probability that the climate's "sensitivity" to				conservatives, who are accused of destroying the
greenhouse-gas levels would result in drastically				Earth with cars and massive energy consumption.
higher temperatures is "substantially" reduced, she				The angry mobs of environmentalists seek to put
said.				to death the American way of life, that is based
Ms. Hegerl and her four-member team based their				in the ideas of capitalism and economic growth.

Weather Forecast

True Inconvenience